In November in Seoul, at The Economist Conferences Business Roundtable with the South Korean government, President Lee Myung-bak and his full team of economic ministers and other top officials all harped a good deal on green themes. I append the relevant section of the summary that I wrote for participants. You’ll note a degree of scepticism.
Songdo, the subject of the article that Michael links to, is probably a lost cause by now for the poor spoonbills. (For a broader and more positive view of this project overall, from a source which one might have expected to be critical, see http://www.japanfocus.org/-David-McNeill/3247.)
Then there is Saemangeum: mother of all white elephants, and politically the purest pork. They built the world’s longest sea-wall, at vast expense and here again destroying wetland bird habitats. Yet after almost 20 years, nothing has been done with it because no one can agree what the ruddy thing is for! Some links:
Birdskorea.org | Visit Korea (A casino now, forsooth!) | Joongang Ilbo
Now we have the Four Rivers Restoration Project (4RRP), which is ploughing ahead despite many serious concerns. These are summarized in an article I wrote last May; also appended here, if I may, since it is not in the public domain.
An excellent piece on the 4RRP is this by James Card:
His opening paragraph reads as follows:
The Korean peninsula was once called geum-su-gang-san, “a land of embroidered rivers and mountains.” Before South Korea industrialized in the postwar years, the rivers were wild-running freestone streams barreling down the mountains and turning into sandy shallow rivers edged by wetlands as they reached the sea. In her 1898 book Korea and Her Neighbors, 19th-century travel writer Isabella Bird described the upper Namhan River as “where pure emerald water laps gently upon crags festooned with roses and honeysuckle, or in fairy bays on pebbly beaches and white sand.”
That world is long gone now…
Finally, ecological doubletalk is only one instance of how ideology befuddles the brain and skews policy. There is also egalitarian doubletalk, whose progeny is Sejong City: like Saemangeum an ill-considered pork-barrel scheme on whose purpose no one agrees, and a political hot potato which will waste time and money for years to come, belying its website name: http://www.happycity.go.kr/. Here are two views: JoongAng Ilbo | Hankyoreh
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Conference Summary
A major theme was what President Lee called the “new national vision” of low carbon green growth. (So new, indeed, that it hardly figured in his campaign for office in 2007.) Strategy and finance minister Yoon Jeung-hyun outlined the “Green Growth Five-Year Plan”, dating only from July, whereby Korea “will invest two percent of the GDP as public spending on green growth between 2009 and 2013.” Similarly, according to the only recently appointed knowledge economy minister Choi Kyunghwan, five ‘green tech industries’ are among 17 ‘new growth engines’ announced in January; the other 12 being in ‘high-tech convergence industries’ and ‘value-added service industries.’ (More on services in the following section.)
Minister Choi, who is also a member of the national assembly, admitted that he had recently expressed the fear that South Korea plans to go green too fast. In his view public consensus is missing. Moreover his brief includes being in charge of industry, so he fights their corner. (MKE is the new name for what used to be the ministry of commerce, industry and energy or MOCIE: arguably a more accurate moniker than the trendy new one, with its aura of IT.) Kim Hyung-Kook, who chairs the presidential committee on green growth, conceded that for a country whose emissions had more than doubled since 1990, going green would be hard. He saw his committee as open to foreigners, and a ginger group to the rest of government.
The US$18bn Four Rivers Restoration Project (4RRP) was little mentioned, despite its being the most tangible project in this field as well as a major focus of public debate. Many view it as a covert rebranding of President Lee’s former ‘grand canal’ scheme, which he had pitched more for logistical than green reasons (though few were convinced) and reluctantly dropped. In sum, despite right-on rhetoric and good intentions, doubts remain about both the depth of this new conversion to eco-friendliness, and just how green some aspects of it really are.
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As participants left, they may have noticed posters and preparations in the Hyatt for an event next day: the 2009 International Forum for Green Growth and Saemangeum Project. This is about the world’s longest sea-wall (33km) and largest polder on Korea’s southwest coast, not yet complete after nearly 20 years and some US$7.5bn. No one agrees what to do with the site; plans have altered several times, while critics claim it is bad for the environment.
An editorial on October 21st in the JoongAng Ilbo, Seoul’s leading daily, linked this to other currently planned large-scale projects under the headline: “Prudent Policy, Please.” Besides the Four Rivers project, this also alludes to the main hot potato of current political debate: a US$18bn plan to move half the government to a new administrative city 160km south of Seoul. (Interestingly this went unmentioned in the Roundtable.) Even if modified as seems likely into a scientific or educational complex instead, this will still be an costly distraction.
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Brief for Oxford Analytica. Edited version published 22 May 2009.
Some slight updating.
SOUTH KOREA:
Rivers restoration project rekindles canal controversy
SUBJECT: The Lee Myung-bak administration’s environmental infrastructure plans.
SIGNIFICANCE: Critics claim the government’s ideas are environmentally unsound, and a ploy to resurrect the president’s dream of a nationwide canal network via the back door.
ANALYSIS: On April 27 President Lee Myung-bak presided at the launch of an interim plan to upgrade South Korea’s four major rivers: the Han, Nakdong, Geum and Yeongsan. This is to be finalized by end-May, with work starting in September after the rainy season.
The four river restoration project (4RRP) is a core part of a 50 trillion won (37 billion dollar) ‘Green New Deal’ announced earlier this year. Costing 14 trillion won, the 4RRP aims to:
- Provide more and better water. Two new dams and 13 reservoirs are to store an extra 1.25 billion cubic metres of fresh water by 2012.
- This, and dredging the river beds, are also meant to improve control of seasonal flooding. The latter has worsened since the 1970s, possibly because of the effects of industrialisation.
- Amenities will include 1,411 kilometres of new cycling paths, sprucing up cultural relics near the river banks, and general riparian beautification for leisure and tourism purposes.
- It is hoped thereby to create some 190,000 jobs directly and more indirectly, boosting local economies along the rivers and contributing to more balanced regional development.
- New photovoltaic and small hydropower plants on or near the four rivers, as well as larger green spaces, are supposed to reduce carbon emissions by 100,000 tons annually.
Canal redux? On February 26 prime minister Han Seung-soo said “there should be no more controversy over this project,” calling it “the backbone of our Green New Deal plan.”
However, this has not silenced claims that the 4RRP is essentially a covert bid to revive Lee Myung-bak’s pet project for a ‘Grand Korean Waterway’ (GKW): a 540 kilometre cross-country canal linking Seoul to the port of Busan in the southeast, costing 16 trillion won.
Mountainous and densely populated, South Korea has high logistics costs. But few experts supported the GKW, fearing rather a white elephant and ecological harm. Yet Lee persisted, until forced to drop the idea last June amidst a deepening political crisis caused by protests against US beef imports and complaints that he was riding roughshod over public opinion.
Water shortage. Among the varied aims of the 4RRP, water shortage is a growing problem. Though South Korea’s yearly rainfall of 1,274 millimetres is 30% above the global average, its dense population means per capita water supply will fall to 1,199 cubic metres by 2025; the UN regards 2,000 as the safe minimum. Yet daily consumption per head at 397 litres is the highest in OECD, suggesting a need for action at the demand as well as the supply end.
Protest. Environmental NGOs are influential in South Korea. Their record includes:
- Holding up for several years construction of the world’s longest seawall (see below).
- Delaying the last section of the KTX high speed rail link from Seoul to Busan, now set to open finally in 2010. On April 23 the Supreme Court convicted Venerable Jiyu, a Buddhist nun, for obstructing this; most famously in a 120-day hunger strike in 2005 against a planned 13 kilometre tunnel near her monastery, said to threaten the habitat of a rare salamander.
Green? Ecological NGOs are predictably sceptical of the 4RRP and its green credentials:
- Birds Korea (BK) claims that the plans to dredge rivers and build dams, weirs and bicycle paths will breach obligations under the Convention on Biological Diversity and the Ramsar Convention on wetlands, to both of which South Korea is a signatory.
- BK also argues that vegetated riverbanks, appropriately supported, would be stronger and cheaper to maintain than concrete, as well as more attractive for biodiversity and recreation.
- Or again, silting and stagnation from dams will harm rather than help water quality. Tap water potability has become a public concern in recent years; bottled water sales have soared despite official insistence that mains water is safe to drink. Water quality and quantity and flood control alike would be better guaranteed by restoring natural flood-plain wetlands.
- Conversely, a construction-focused approach will disturb and restrict water flows, destroy natural river beds and edges, reduce biodiversity and risk long-term ecological damage.
Bulldozer. Relatedly, critics query the underlying perspective and priorities of this project:
- President Lee is a former CEO of Hyundai’s construction arm. Nicknamed ‘bulldozer’, he is viewed as espousing an old-school view of development as covering nature with concrete.
- The construction sector, accounting for nearly 20% of GDP, is suffering in the downturn. This affords an excuse for public works projects as Keynesian stimulus, and for job creation. On this basis the 4RRP, like the GKW before it, is popular in most of the localities affected, with hopes of regeneration and new employment outweighing environmental concerns.
- In Lee’s favour, his controversial removal of a raised motorway to restore a long-hidden stream while mayor of Seoul is now applauded as much improving the capital’s amenities.
Exempt? There is disquiet that no full feasibility studies have been done. Indeed, a 1999 law mandating such a survey for all projects costing over 50 billion won was recently amended to exempt works for “natural disaster prevention” – as the 4RRP is classified – from this.
Canal reduced. Similar unease affects another canal project, predating the GKW and still going ahead. On May 6 President Lee visited the site of the 18 kilometre Gyeongin canal. By 2011 this will connect the Han river in Seoul with the port of Incheon on the Yellow (West) Sea for cargo ships of up to 4,000 tons.
Conceived in the 1990s, this idea was abandoned five years ago amid doubts that it could be economic. In 2003 the Board of Audit and Inspection (BAI) criticised officials for fudging a cost-benefit analyis by the Korea Development Institute (KDI) to make it look viable. Lee revived the 2 billion dollar project, but doubts persist and KDI’s study remains unpublished.
Green growth. More broadly, on May 12 the Presidential Committee on Green Growth said 12.6 trillion won will be invested by 2013 in green technologies, to create half a million jobs. 4.2 trillion won will be spent on Internet infrastructure, green IT products, and low-carbon transit systems, while R&D into other various green technologies, such as high-efficiency solar batteries and hybrid vehicles, will receive 8.4 trillion won.
Seawall saga. If precedent is any guide, two relevant cases point in opposite directions:
- Confounding early scepticism, upgrading of the Han river in Seoul – initally for the 1988 Olympics – has been a success. The river now is far cleaner and more attractive than before.
- However, the main recent precedent for large-scale nature-remaking is discouraging. At 33 kilometres, Saemangeum on the southwest coast is the world’s longest seawall, infilling an estuary and adding 400 square kilometres of reclaimed land. This remains controversial:
- Begun in 1991, the wall was not finished till 2006. Environmentalists opposed it, saying it would destroy some of East Asia’s most important wetlands, crucial for migratory birds. In 2007 the RSPB, a British bird protection body, reported that seabirds were starving there.
- Conceived mainly to boost and placate the neglected Jeolla region, which complained at missing out on major development projects, Saemangeum’s precise purpose has never been agreed or clarified. Talk variously of industrial or agricultural uses has come to little so far.
- Last year the area was designated a free economic zone (FEZ), again to no visible effect.
- In March the central and provincial governments agreed to make Saemangeum a “model green vacation spot”, international tourist resort, or even “a Korean Dubai”. This latest twist appears no better thought out, nor more likely to succeed, than its many predecessors.
- – as witness that by October the state-run Korea Rural Community Corp. (KRC) was touting the wholly different concept of an “eco-friendly manufacturing hub.”
CONCLUSION: Lee’s river restoration plan is ambitious and far-reaching. Confidence that it will actually achieve its diverse goals would be higher if feasibility studies had preceded it. If this goes ahead but proves to have little or negative impact, especially on the environment, this will only cement the president’s reputation for bulldozing projects without consultation, and could work against the ruling party in 2012’s presidential and parliamentary elections.
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Michael Rank had written:
If you’re interested in development vs conservation, “cities of the future” and “ecological doubletalk” in Korea you may be interested in this:
http://tinyurl.com/yl7ldsv
Michael Rank